There is still no official final price tag for Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum.
Elections Alberta has not published a total administration cost for the vote, even as estimates ranging from roughly $120 million to $134 million circulate publicly. Those figures come from former election officials, opposition politicians and referendum campaign groups — not from a final Elections Alberta budget.
That distinction matters. Some referendum costs are documented. Others are estimates. And several headline totals combine separate pots of public spending.
The biggest cost is still unknown
Elections Alberta is responsible for running the vote: staffing, polling places, ballots, logistics and the count.
What is known is the scale. Elections Alberta says it will print 45 million ballots for the 10-question referendum and needs at least 60,000 workers. The agency has also said it expects roughly 34 million ballots to actually be used, depending on turnout. The unofficial count must be completed within 48 hours, and ballots are counted by hand.
By comparison, Alberta’s 2023 provincial election cost $36,749,588, according to Elections Alberta’s official election report.
What Elections Alberta has not released is a final cost estimate for administering the Oct. 19 referendum.
Where the $120 million to $130 million estimate comes from
Former Alberta chief electoral officer Lorne Gibson has estimated the referendum could cost between $120 million and $130 million.
His estimate is based largely on the much larger staffing requirement, the number of ballots that must be printed and handled, polling-place costs and the logistics of counting 10 separate questions within the 48-hour deadline.
The estimate has since been repeated by other political and advocacy groups. It remains an estimate, not an audited cost.
The finance minister expects a much lower number
Finance Minister Jason Nixon has publicly challenged the $130-million figure.
Asked about the estimate in June, Nixon said the number seemed “extremely high” and said he could not see why a province-wide referendum should cost more than a general election.
That puts the government’s public expectation much closer to the roughly $37 million cost of the 2023 election.
At this point, the gap between those estimates has not been resolved by an official Elections Alberta budget.
Government advertising is a separate cost
The cost of running the referendum is separate from government spending to promote its position on the questions.
In September, the Alberta government launched a $4-million advertising campaign ahead of the referendum. The campaign includes television, radio, online advertising and billboards.
Other spending connected to referendum preparation has also been reported, including a University of Calgary study on the costs of secession and work on referendum-related web material. Because some reported figures may overlap with the government’s broader advertising budget, adding every publicly reported line item together can produce a misleading total.
What about the $134.3-million figure?
Alberta’s Voice, a registered referendum third-party advertiser that supports remaining in Canada and opposes the other nine questions, has promoted a figure of $134.3 million.
That figure is not an official government accounting. It combines the upper end of Gibson’s referendum estimate with additional reported government spending.
Alberta’s Voice is an active participant in the referendum campaign, so its total should be understood as a campaign group’s estimate rather than an audited public cost.
Third-party campaign spending is not taxpayer spending
Registered referendum third-party advertisers can also spend money campaigning for or against referendum questions.
Elections Alberta currently sets the referendum advertising expense limit at $607,000 per registered third-party advertiser.
That money comes from the advertisers and their donors, not from the provincial treasury, so it should not be included when calculating the referendum’s direct cost to taxpayers.
What we can say with confidence
The 2023 provincial election cost $36.75 million. Elections Alberta says the referendum requires 45 million printed ballots, at least 60,000 workers and a hand count completed within 48 hours. A former chief electoral officer estimates administration could reach $120 million to $130 million. The finance minister says that estimate is far too high. The provincial government is also spending $4 million on referendum advertising.
The final administration cost remains unknown.
Until Elections Alberta publishes its budget or final accounting, any headline claiming the referendum definitively costs $120 million, $130 million or $134.3 million is presenting an estimate as a settled number.
Sources: Elections Alberta — June 8 recruitment release; Elections Alberta — May referendum information; Elections Alberta — 2023 Provincial General Election Report; Elections Alberta — Referendum Third Party Advertisers.
Photo: Element5 Digital / Unsplash.
